Freepen.gr - Μια λεπτομερή ανάλυση ως προς τα τελευταία γεγονότα στο καντόνι της Αφρίν παρουσιάζει το moonofalabama.org. Η γνωστή σελίδα κάνει λόγο για πλήρη αποτυχία της στρατηγικής των ΗΠΑ στην περιοχή αλλά και για σφάλμα των Κούρδων όταν επέλεξαν να ταχθούν με την άλλη όχθη του Ατλαντικού.
Αυτό που αξίζει να υπογραμμισθεί, είναι ότι στην πρόταση των Ρώσων για παράδοση ουσιαστικά του καντονιού στη Δαμασκό, οι Κούρδοι απέρριψαν με την πρόταση αλλά αντιπρότειναν να παραδοθεί η αεροπορική βάση στο Μενάγκ και ορισμένα σημεία ελέγχου.
Σήμερα βέβαια δημοσιεύσαμε στη Freepen.gr την ανακοίνωση της αυτόνομης διοίκησης της Αφρίν που κάλεσε το συριακό στρατό να υπερασπιστεί μαζί με την YPG την εδαφική ακεραιότητα της Συρίας!
Στο ενδιαφέρον κείμενο σημειώνεται και η δυσανεξία της Δαμασκού που δεν επιθυμεί την παρουσία της Αγκυρας στα εδάφη της αλλά ούτε και ένα αμερικανικό προτεκτοράτο.
Επισημαίνεται επίσης ότι μπορεί οι επιχειρήσεις να διεξάγονται στην Αφρίν, ο πραγματικός όμως σκοπός βρίσκεται από την Ιεράπολη μέχρι την εσχατιά των βορειοανατολικών συνόρων της Συρίας και της δύναμης των 30.000 ανδρών που αρχικά δήλωσαν οι ΗΠΑ ότι σκοπεύουν να δημιουργήσουν μαζί με τις SDF.
Η Αφρίν υπήρξε η επιλογή διότι βρίσκεται ουσιαστικά υπό τη ρωσική - συριακή κηδεμονία.
Σημειώνεται με έμφαση πως τα τουρκικά αεροσκάφη που βομβαρδίζουν τους Κούρδους απογειώνονται εν πόλλοις από τη βάση του Ιντσιρλίκ και ό,τι αυτό σημαίνει για το ρόλο των ΗΠΑ.
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After negotiations between Russia/Syria and the Kurds of Afrin had
failed, the Russian side made a deal with Turkey. Now Turkey attacks
Afrin while everyone else looks aside. The main impetus for this
development was the announcement of a U.S. occupation in north-east
Syria with the help of the Kurdish YPG/PKK. The occupation strategy is
already failing. The Kurds made the false choice. They will be the
losers of this game.
We had wrongly predicted that Turkish threats against the Kurdish held north-west area of Afrin were empty:
The threat is not serious:The Turkish threats and its artillery noise have led to counter noise from Syria and more silent advice from Russia. The Syrian government wants to show that it is the protector of all Syrian citizens be they ethnic Arabs or Kurds. Russia is proud of its role as the grown up who is calming down all sides.
- ...
- Afrin is under formal protection of Russian and Syrian forces.
- The real danger to Turkey is not Afrin but the much larger Kurdish protectorate the U.S. publicly announced in north-east Syria.
Turkey is now attacking the Afrin canton in full force. With help from one George Orwell the operation was dubbed "Olive Branch"
The Turkish operation to go after Afrin was triggered by two events. The more important one was the U.S. announcement of a permanent occupation
of north-east Syria with the help of a 30,000 men strong SDF "border
protection force" consisting of mainly Kurds and some Arabs who earlier
fought under ISIS. We had noted at that time:
The Turks were not consulted before the U.S. move and are of course not amused that a "terrorist gang", trained and armed by the U.S., will control a long stretch of their southern border. Any Turkish government would have to take harsh measures to prevent such a strategic threat to the country.
The U.S. move was amateurish. It ignored the security needs of its
NATO ally Turkey in exchange for an illegal and unsustainable occupation
of north-east Syria. Secretary of State Tillerson tried to calm the
Turks by claiming that the "border protection force" was not for border
protection. Reports from the training ground expose that as a lie:
"This force will be a foundational force to protect the borders of north Syria," proclaimed the announcer at the graduation ceremony.
A second motive for the Turkish operation was the success of the
Syrian army in the east-Idleb where "Free Syrian Army" and al-Qaeda
Takfiris supported by Turkey were eliminated by Syrian Army attacks.
The now unfolding Turkish operation was preceded by several rounds of negotiations.
The Syrian government and its Russian allies offered the Afrin Kurds to protect them from any Turkish attacks:
Nearly a week ago, [a] meeting between Russian officials and Kurdish leaders took place. Moscow suggested Syrian State becomes only entity in charge of the northern border. The Kurds refused. It was immediately after that that the Turkish Generals were invited to Moscow. Having the Syrian State in control of its Northern Border wasn't the only Russian demand. The other was that the Kurds hand back the oil fields in Deir al Zor. The Kurds refused suggesting that the US won't allow that anyway. The meeting was not exactly a success.
This account was confirmed by Kurdish negotiators:
Aldar Xelil (@Xelilaldar), member of the Democratic Free Society Tev-Dem: “In a meeting Russia proposed to the Afrin Administration that if Afrin is ruled by the Syrian regime, Turkey won’t attack it. #Afrin Canton Administration refused this proposal.”
The Kurds made a counteroffer. They would raise some Syrian flags and
give up on the (mostly destroyed) Menagh air force base they hold but
they were unwilling to give up any border control:
A translation from the Diken newspaper:
Amberin Zaman talked to Rojava officials Nobahar Mustafa and Sinam Mohammed. They say:
- Russia aims to weaken the YPG and to turn Afrin over to "the regime."
- We're still in negotiations with Russia. They said if you turn over Afrin to the regime it will protect you. We refused. We offered to turn over Menagh airbase and some other checkpoints but they refused.
- We may pull out of Sochi
- New alliances will be formed with Saudi, UAE, and Egypt.
- Rojava forces commander General Mazlum and Ilham Ahmed have met Brett McGurk to ask the US to stop the Turkish attacks. This is a test of how reliable an ally the US is.
After the negotiations with the Kurds had failed Syria and Russia,
which was the negotiating entity, made a deal with Turkey. Turkey had
agreed to a de-escalation zone in Idleb but never proceeded to set up
the promised observation posts in the al-Qaeda ruled area. Turkey had
supported al-Qaeda. Fighting it directly is against Turkish interests.
It is itself too vulnerable as many al-Qaeda fighters have family and
friends living within Turkey.
The new deal will give Syria control over most of Idleb in exchange
for Turkish control over Afrin (if the Turks can indeed take the area).
In parallel to the start of the Turkish operation the Syrian army took
the air base Abu Duhur in east-Idleb. It will eliminate whatever is left
of al-Qaeda and ISIS in the now closed cauldron. It will then proceed
further into Idelb governorate.
Having Turkey take over Afrin is bad for Syria. The Syrian government
clearly dislikes the deal the Russians made in its name. Any agreement
with the shifty Turkish President Erdogan will likely not hold for long.
But having the Kurds ally with the U.S. in a permanent occupation of
the north-east is even worse.
The Syrian government has rejected
Turkish claims that it was informed about the attack and officially
condemned the Turkish move. But it can do little against it. Its army is
depleted and engaged elsewhere. Neither Russia nor Iran would support
an open conflict with Turkey.
Turkish media are in full war mode:
Turkish papers this morning:
- Hurriyet: Our jets hit #Afrin. Turkey’s heart beats as one
- Sabah: We hit them in their den
- Haberturk: Iron fist to terror, olive branch to civilians
- Sozcu: We said we would strike despite the US and Russia. We struck the traitors
Turkey has launched a quite large operation against Afrin. Its
air-force is bombarding the area. It is now sending its most modern
tanks. The al-Qaeda-"Free Syrian Army" Turkey supports and controls will
be its front line infantry that is sure to bleed the most. Afrin is
mountainous and it will be a difficult fight. Two Turkish tanks have
already been destroyed. The Kurds are well prepared and armed. Both
sides will have lots of losses.
Meanwhile the Syrian army and its allies will have time to take over Idelb.
The U.S. is left with a mess. Its strategy for Syria, only announced
last week, is already falling apart. Its Central Command rejected any
responsibility for the Kurds in Afrin while allying with the Kurds in
the east. These are the same people. The Kurdish military commander in
Afrin earlier fought in Kobane. Now Turkish planes are taking off from
the U.S. build Incerlik air base to bomb the Kurds in the Syrian west
while U.S. tanker planes take off from Incirlik to support the U.S.
alliance with the Kurds in the east.
The Arab group Jaysh al Thuwar was part of the Arab fig leaf that
disguises the Kurdish command over the U.S. supported SDF in the east.
It has now turned sides and is back under Turkish tutelage. (UPDATE: This has now been denied.
/end-update) More elements of the SDF will change sides. We can expect
"insider attacks" against the U.S. forces who are training them.
The Kurdish command blames
Russia for the Turkish attack on Afrin. That is laughable. Syria and
the Russians had supported the Kurds throughout the war. They were the
first to deliver weapons and ammunition to the Kurds for the fight
against the Takfiris. It were the Kurds that changed sides and invited
the U.S. occupation. It is the Kurds that announced they would ask for
Saudi support.
Just a few month ago the Kurdish project in Iraq failed miserably.
The Iraqi government took back all gains the Kurds had made over a
decade and the U.S. did nothing to help their Kurdish "allies". Why do
the Kurds in Syria believe that their immense overreach will have a
different outcome?